Modelling the impact of climate change on maize yield in Victoria Nile Sub-basin, Uganda

Abstract Agriculture is the backbone of Uganda’s economy, with about 24.9% contribution to gross domestic product (GDP) as per Uganda National Household Survey 2016/17. Agricultural productivity (yield hectare) still low due high dependence on rain-fed subsistence farming. Climate change expected further reduce yield hectare. Therefore, this study aims evaluate potential impact climate maize in Victoria Nile Sub-basin using AquaCrop model. It assesses possible adaptation measures change. The Hadley Centre Global Environmental Model version 2–Earth System (HadGEM2-ES) data downloaded from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) was used simulate near future (2021–2040), mid (2041–2070) and late (2071–2099). Results show that likely by 1–10%, 2–42% 1–39% near, futures, respectively, depending agro-ecological zone. This decline can have a significant regional food security well socio-economic well-being since staple crop. also shows improving soil fertility has no under However, combined application supplementary irrigation shifting planting dates promising strategy maintain development. presents important findings strategies policymakers other stakeholders such farmers implement abate effects crop production.